Research Report 2025

Population Density & Real Estate Prices

Israel's Land Supply Crisis: Why Only 7% of Land Is Available for Development

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Background & Purpose

Israel is one of the most densely populated countries in the OECD. Its population density increased from 278 people per km² in 2000 to 447 people per km² in 2026, and is projected to reach approximately 581 people per km² by 2050 and over 922 people per km² by 2065.

Report Purpose: To provide a comprehensive overview of population and density trends in Israel compared to other OECD countries, and to analyze the structural land supply constraints that create unique investment opportunities in private land holdings.

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Israel's Land Supply Crisis

Official Data from Israel Land Authority (December 2021)

21.7M
Total Area (Dunam)
93%
Public Ownership (State, JNF, Dev. Authority)
1.85M
Suitable for Planning
1.59M
Remaining for ILA (~7%)
0.26M
Private & Municipal Land

Land Allocation Breakdown

Total Israel Area (incl. Golan Heights, excl. seas/lakes/Gaza/West Bank)
21.7 Million Dunam
Non-plannable areas: IDF firing zones, nature reserves, national parks, JNF forests, agricultural allocations*
14.7 Million Dunam
Remaining after restricted areas
7 Million Dunam
After deducting built, planned & in-planning areas by ILA – suitable for planning**
1.85 Million Dunam
Of which: Private & municipal ownership
0.26 Million Dunam
After deducting private & municipal – remaining for ILA planning
1.59 Million Dunam only (~7% of state land)

*There is some overlap between these areas.

**Open areas, agricultural land, and areas containing contiguous plots of at least 50 dunam.

⚠️ Critical Insight: Many believe the ILA manages all state land. While 93% of Israel's land is owned by the State, JNF, and Development Authority – the land managed by ILA – in practice, after examining allocation and zoning, ILA has only 1.59 million dunam remaining for planning (~7% of state land).

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The Private Land Opportunity

Why Private Land Holds Unique Value

Government Land Constraints

  • Subject to ILA tender processes
  • Long bureaucratic approval cycles
  • Political considerations in allocation
  • Limited release of new land for development

Investment Implications

Of the 1.85 million dunam available for planning, approximately 260,000 dunam are privately or municipally owned – not under ILA control. These lands offer development potential without dependence on state tenders, and with growing demand from a population increasing at 2% annually – this represents a rare asset with structural appreciation potential.

תיאור התמונה
Population Density & Real Estate Prices
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Population & Density Trends

🇮🇱 Israel

Population density increased from ~278 per km² in 2000 to ~403 in 2024. UN forecasts project ~461 in 2030, 521 in 2040, and 581 in 2050. Shoresh Institute projects Israel will reach ~922 per km² by 2065.

🇳🇱 Netherlands

One of Europe's most densely populated countries. Projected density of ~460 per km² in 2030, with moderate increase to ~520 by 2050.

🇰🇷 South Korea

Very densely populated with ~520 per km² today. Expected to show relative stability and even slight decline long-term due to low birth rates.

🇧🇪 Belgium

Density expected to gradually increase to ~410 per km² by 2050.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Density expected to gradually increase to ~325 per km² by 2050.

🇯🇵 Japan

Shows declining density trend due to population aging – expected to decrease from 325 to ~270 per km² by 2050.

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Charts: Population Density & Real Estate Prices

Population Density Over Time (people per km²)

Real Estate Price Index Over Time (Index 2010=100)

Comparison: Density vs. Real Estate Prices (2025)

Percentage Change: 2000 vs. 2025 (Actual)

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Key Insights

🇮🇱

Israel Stands Out in Two Areas

  • Highest density growth rate in OECD (from 278 to 580+ within 50 years)
  • Particularly sharp real estate price increases (3x since 2000, 4.5x+ by 2050)

Severe Land Supply Constraint

  • Of 21.7 million dunam, only 1.59 million are available for ILA planning
  • Private & municipal land (~260,000 dunam) offers a bypass to the bottleneck

Private Land Premium

  • Agricultural land pending rezoning represents a rare asset with appreciation potential
  • Not subject to ILA tenders – faster development potential
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Sources